Understanding Risk Scores
Every night, our scoring engine evaluates all active customers in your connected Stripe account to generate a Risk Score between 0 and 100. Scores are based on billing signals like payment failures, subscription changes, and cancellation requests.
Risk Tiers
High Risk (Score 65 - 100)
Customers showing strong churn signals like failed payments, pending cancellations, or subscription downgrades. They require immediate personal outreach to save.
Medium Risk (Score 35 - 64)
Customers showing early warning signs like a single failed payment or discount expiring soon. A good time for a proactive check-in email.
Low Risk (Score 0 - 34)
Healthy, active customers with no concerning signals. No intervention needed.
How we calculate the score
Our scoring model uses weighted rules based on Stripe billing data. Each factor contributes a fixed number of points when triggered:
- No active subscription - 50 pts. Customer has no active or trialing subscriptions.
- Pending cancellation - 40 pts. Customer requested cancellation at period end.
- Recent payment failure - 30 pts. Most recent payment attempt failed.
- Subscription paused or downgraded - 25 pts. Customer reduced their plan.
- Multiple failed invoices (30d) - 20 pts. Two or more unpaid invoices in the last 30 days.
- Discount expiring soon - 20 pts. Promotional pricing ends within 30 days.
- Usage drop (40%+) - 15 pts. Usage dropped significantly vs. prior period. Requires usage data import.
- No feature activity (14d) - 10 pts. No product usage in 14 days. Requires usage data import.
- Support ticket spike - 10 pts. Support tickets doubled vs. baseline. Requires support data import.
Scores are capped at 100. Points from all triggered factors are summed. Import usage and support data through CSV to activate the last three factors.
Recommended actions by risk type
Involuntary churn (payment failures)
The customer wants to stay but their card was declined. Send a payment update reminder. Do not ask them “how the product is working” - the issue is purely billing.
Voluntary churn (downgrades, cancellations)
The customer is choosing to leave or reduce spend. Reach out personally to understand why. A brief, honest email from the founder works best.
Sample outreach email
Hi [Name],
I noticed [specific signal - e.g., “your last payment didn’t go through” / “you recently downgraded your plan”].
[If payment issue]: Just wanted to let you know - you can update your card here: [billing link]. Let me know if anything’s off.
[If usage/cancellation]: Is there something specific you were trying to accomplish? I’d be happy to help personally.
Best,
[Your Name]